Top 10 insurance trends for 2026

Guenter Kryszon, Chief Underwriting Officer for the US and Bermuda, has released a forecast of the defining insurance trends for 2026, highlighting a shift toward a softening market with premium growth slowing to 3–4%. The property sector faces a complex landscape of persistent climate-driven catastrophe losses, which exceeded $100 billion globally in recent years, alongside new regulatory pressures regarding artificial intelligence and climate risk disclosure. These trends indicate a transition where underwriters must balance plentiful property-catastrophe reinsurance capacity against rising claims costs driven by social inflation and geopolitical volatility.

The property insurance market is expected to enter a period of decelerating premium growth in 2026, with industry-wide increases forecasted at a modest 3% to 4%. This shift toward softer market conditions is supported by a significant influx of capital into the reinsurance sector, which has reached an estimated global total of over $700 billion. Consequently, property-catastrophe reinsurance is transitioning into a buyer’s market, with rate reductions of 10% to 15% anticipated. However, underwriters are urged to maintain discipline in risk selection and pricing to protect profitability as top-line growth slows and the market gradually tilts away from the hard conditions of previous years.

Climate and catastrophe risks remain a primary concern for the sector, following a 2025 season marked by $40 billion in California wildfire losses and $50 billion from severe convective storms in the United States. With global natural catastrophe losses consistently surpassing the $100 billion threshold annually, insurers are facing increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Beyond environmental factors, macroeconomic shifts such as trade volatility and tariffs are significantly impacting claims severities. For instance, a 25% tariff on imported auto parts in 2025 disrupted pricing models and drove up repair costs, illustrating how geopolitical decisions and supply chain disruptions can ripple into property and casualty insurance results.

The integration of AI and machine learning is set to transform underwriting by 2026, enabling real-time data analysis of satellite imagery, loss history, and telematics for more precise risk scoring and "continuous underwriting." This technological shift coincides with increased oversight from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC), which recently approved an AI governance framework to ensure transparency and prevent algorithmic bias. Underwriters must now navigate a tighter regulatory environment that requires explicit acknowledgement of climate risk in their strategies and the ability to justify automated decisions. To stay competitive, firms are increasingly turning to innovative products such as parametric covers, captives, and hybrid products to address intangible assets and evolving tech exposures.