U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index: Shippers pay more as trucking capacity tightens

The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index for the second quarter of 2026 reveals that shippers are facing significantly higher costs despite a decline in overall shipment volumes. National spending rose by 6.4% sequentially and 28.1% year-over-year, driven primarily by a tightening of trucking capacity rather than fuel price fluctuations alone. This shift marks a critical turning point for the Freight & Trucking sector as several years of excess supply begin to dissipate, forcing rates upward even in a soft demand environment.

According to the latest data from U.S. Bank, national shipment volumes dropped 1.1% from the first quarter and 2.8% compared to the previous year, marking the second consecutive quarterly decline. Despite this cooling demand, shipper spending surged 6.4% over the prior quarter and a staggering 28.1% on an annual basis. Bob Costello, chief economist at the American Trucking Associations, noted that while fuel prices contributed to these rising costs, the primary driver is the contraction of available trucking capacity following a prolonged period of oversupply. As capacity becomes scarcer, rates are climbing, forcing shippers to pay more to move less freight.

Regional activity varied across the United States, with the Southeast and West seeing modest shipment gains of 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively. In contrast, the Midwest experienced the sharpest decline in volume at 3.7%, while the Southwest saw a minor dip of 0.6%. Spending trends, however, were more uniform, with nearly every region recording sequential increases. The West led the way with a 12% jump in spending, followed closely by the Southwest at 11.2% and the Southeast at 10%. On a year-over-year basis, the financial impact was even more pronounced, with spending increases ranging from 22.9% in the Midwest to nearly 40% in the Southwest.

Bobby Holland, director of freight business analytics at U.S. Bank, highlighted the Southwest as a particularly notable region where the disconnect between falling shipments and rising costs was most extreme. This trend serves as a clear indicator that capacity constraints can exert significant upward pressure on freight rates even when underlying demand remains stagnant. For the trucking industry, these findings suggest a transition toward a more carrier-favorable environment as the market corrects from previous years of excess capacity. Shippers must now navigate a landscape where operational costs are rising independently of volume growth, necessitating more strategic logistics planning.