2026 Retail Industry Global Outlook

Deloitte’s 2026 global outlook identifies a pivotal watershed moment for the retail sector as companies navigate significant disruptions in commerce, customer engagement, and operational discipline. Despite a projected modest slowdown in global economic growth, 96% of surveyed retail executives expect revenue increases, while 81% anticipate margin expansion. This outlook highlights the critical role of artificial intelligence and the need for retailers to balance technological investment with financial prudence amid shifting trade policies and consumer spending pressures.

Deloitte’s research, based on a survey of 330 global retail executives, suggests that 2026 will require unprecedented adaptability from industry leaders as they face a landscape shaped by shifting commerce and operational demands. While the global economy faces a potential slowdown and a squeeze on consumer spending power, optimism remains high regarding internal performance metrics. Specifically, 96% of respondents anticipate revenue growth, and 81% expect to see expanded margins in the coming year. This confidence persists even as the industry grapples with the fallout of trade liberalization shifts and fiscal stimulus measures implemented in response to previous economic disruptions.

Artificial intelligence stands at the center of the industry's transformation, influencing everything from marketing and customer experience to supply chain management. The report notes that investment in AI has accelerated globally, particularly in the United States and China, serving as a primary driver of disruption. For retailers, this involves reimagining customer engagement and leveraging data-driven insights to maintain a competitive edge. However, the outlook warns that the U.S. economy's stability is heavily tied to the pace of AI-related investment; while massive infrastructure spending could sustain growth, a reversal in this sector could lead to substantial economic weakening.

The retail landscape in 2026 will be further shaped by significant macroeconomic pressures, including U.S. trade and immigration policies that may trigger inflation and labor shortages. Tariffs are expected to reduce consumer purchasing power, creating a divide where upper-income households continue spending while low- and middle-income groups face increasing financial stress. Internationally, China continues to struggle with a residential property market collapse and declining exports due to trade restrictions, forcing its government to use stimulus to boost domestic demand. These factors contribute to a climate of uncertainty that has already led some companies to postpone critical supply chain investments.

To navigate these complexities, Deloitte leaders emphasize a return to core retail fundamentals: customer centricity, financial prudence, and operational excellence. The 2026 outlook identifies key dynamics for the year ahead, focusing on reimagined marketing, building supply chain resilience amid unreliability, and maintaining cost discipline. As retailers face fluctuating currency values and borrowing costs, the ability to flex adaptability muscles will be the defining factor for sustained success in a world where traditional economic relations and consumer behaviors are being rapidly redefined.