Robotaxis Are Forecast to Become a $400 Billion Market in 2035

Goldman Sachs Research projects that the global robotaxi market will reach approximately $415 billion by 2035, marking a significant shift from experimental concepts to commercial reality. This growth is driven by improving safety records, increasing customer demand, and expanding deployments across the US, China, Europe, and the Middle East. The transition is expected to reshape the transportation sector, with the total autonomous vehicle industry revenue potentially reaching $2 trillion as costs fall and operational efficiency improves.

Goldman Sachs Research, led by analyst Mark Delaney, forecasts a massive expansion of the autonomous vehicle (AV) sector, with the global robotaxi fleet expected to surge from 7,000 vehicles last year to approximately 6 million by 2035. The US market alone is projected to reach $48 billion by 2035, a sharp increase from previous estimates of $7 billion for 2030. Vertically integrated companies that both manufacture and operate their own fleets could see gross margins between 30% and 50%, potentially creating a global gross profit pool of $150 billion by 2035.

Cost reductions are a primary driver of this economic shift, with the total cost of goods sold per mile for US robotaxis expected to drop below $1 by 2035. This decline is attributed to falling vehicle depreciation costs and a significant improvement in remote supervision efficiency, moving from one human supervisor for every six vehicles today to a 26-to-1 ratio in 2035. Additionally, the autonomous trucking segment is poised for substantial growth, with the global market forecast at $560 billion by 2035. In the US, the cost to equip a truck with AV technology is expected to plummet from up to $150,000 today to around $35,000-$40,000 as production scales.

The broader AV industry, encompassing hardware, software, and services, is estimated to generate $2 trillion in total revenue by 2035. While much of this represents a shift from human-operated spending, revenue specifically tied to AI technology—such as virtual driver software and consumer autonomy subscriptions—is expected to hit $300 billion. The consumer software market for Level 3 to Level 5 autonomy alone could exceed $50 billion. As leading operators target expansion into 15 to 20 cities globally by late 2026, the industry faces a massive disruption of existing economic activity, including driver wages and traditional vehicle sales.