Trading Volume on Prediction Markets Soars to $24 Billion as Sports and Politics Drive Growth

Trading volume on leading prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket has experienced a dramatic surge, reaching a combined $24 billion in April 2026. This growth represents a significant shift in the speculative landscape, with monthly volumes now exceeding the $14 billion average wagered through traditional U.S. sportsbooks in 2025. For the sports and analytics sector, the rise of these platforms introduces a new layer of data-driven forecasting that competes directly with traditional betting markets for liquidity and consumer attention.

According to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from The Block, the combined monthly global trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket skyrocketed from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to approximately $24 billion by April 2026. This rapid expansion places prediction markets in direct competition with the established gambling industry, as the total monthly volume on these platforms has surpassed the $14 billion monthly average wagered through legal U.S. sportsbooks during 2025. These markets function through binary event contracts valued between $0 and $1, where the trading price serves as a real-time proxy for the probability of an outcome, such as a sports team winning or a political candidate succeeding.

The market is currently dominated by two primary entities with distinct regulatory profiles: Kalshi and Polymarket. In the United States, Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while Polymarket International operates without CFTC oversight, though it remains accessible to some users via VPNs. Despite the launch of a regulated Polymarket US, its April 2026 volume of $1.3 billion remains significantly lower than the $9 billion generated by Polymarket International. The analysis notes that these platforms utilize notional taker volume to measure activity, counting each contract at its $1 payout value rather than the fluctuating purchase price.

Sports, politics, and cryptocurrency have emerged as the dominant drivers of this sector, accounting for over 90% of the global trading volume on both major platforms since mid-2024. While political events like the 2024 U.S. presidential election initially fueled Kalshi's growth before it offered sports trading, interest in sports has remained a consistent and substantial pillar of the prediction economy. For the sports analytics market, these platforms provide a unique dataset of mention markets and event-based contracts that offer granular, market-driven insights into public sentiment and probability. The sustained high volume in sports contracts suggests that prediction markets are becoming a primary venue for sophisticated bettors and analysts to hedge risks and capitalize on real-world outcomes.