Global Music Revenues Are Forecast to Double to $200 Billion in 2035

Goldman Sachs Research projects that global music industry revenues will nearly double over the next decade, reaching approximately $200 billion by 2035. Despite a recent slowdown where growth dropped from 15.6% in 2023 to 6.2% last year, analysts maintain a resilient outlook for the sector's long-term value. This forecast highlights a shift in market drivers, moving away from traditional streaming growth toward new monetization models and emerging technologies.

According to the 2025 edition of the "Music in the Air" report by analysts Eric Sheridan and Stephen Laszczyk, the music industry is navigating a period of transition after revenues fell short of expectations for the first time since forecasting began. The market's growth rate decelerated significantly to 6.2% last year, a dip attributed to a combination of structural, cyclical, and one-off factors. However, the report estimates that total revenues will climb from $105 billion in 2024 to nearly $200 billion by 2035, suggesting that the industry still possesses substantial scope for value appreciation despite the slower-than-anticipated near-term pace.

The drivers of this future growth are expected to differ from the catalysts of the past decade, with a heavy emphasis on new streaming markets and the monetization of "superfans." Analysts point to a "blurring of lines" between different media formats, specifically noting that platforms are increasingly pushing video content to attract and retain users. Additionally, the industry is seeing a trend toward bundling services, such as merging audiobook and music subscriptions, to consolidate audiences and create more robust revenue streams.

Regarding technological disruptions, the report addresses the impact of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and the ad-supported market. While initial fears suggested AI-generated music might saturate streaming platforms, Sheridan and Laszczyk note that such a trend has not yet materialized; instead, music publishers and platforms are collaborating to protect artist interests. Meanwhile, the forecast for ad-supported streaming growth has been revised downward to a 5.7% compound annual growth rate through 2030, down from a previous estimate of 11.3%, reflecting broader macroeconomic concerns and cyclical pressures on advertising budgets.