Opportunities in an Uncertain Market: Perspectives From the Hunter Conference General Session Panel

The 37th annual Hunter Conference convened at its new home, the Signia by Hilton Atlanta, to address the complex macroeconomic landscape facing hotel owners, developers, and investors. Industry leaders discussed a complicated climate marked by geopolitical tension and market volatility, while highlighting a significant shift toward a new investment cycle. This gathering underscores the critical role of face-to-face industry events in navigating market shifts, facilitating deal-making, and addressing the decoupling of RevPAR growth from GDP.

Teague and Lee Hunter opened the general session by emphasizing the conference's mission to facilitate face-to-face business and relationship building during periods of market complexity. Robert J. Webster of CBRE characterized the current environment as the second-best buying opportunity for hotels since the early 1990s, noting a 15 percent increase in transaction volume over the previous year. Panelists observed that lower capital costs have stabilized prices, allowing sellers to transact even as investors navigate a highly cyclical business environment driven by a transition from fear of mistakes to a fear of missing out (FOMO).

The panel highlighted the increasing role of private equity and international capital, particularly as debt capital costs have declined since late 2024. Brian Waldman of Peachtree Group noted that high-profile acquisitions in distressed markets like San Francisco are prompting other firms to seek similar opportunities. However, experts warned that macroeconomic uncertainty requires rigorous risk-adjusted return calculations. Waldman cautioned against over-reliance on financial models, which often fail to perfectly predict market movements, stressing the importance of having the confidence to manage risk when underwriting proves inaccurate.

Looking at performance metrics, Evan Weiss of LW Hospitality Advisors pointed to a projected RevPAR growth of only 0.6 percent, a historically low figure that suggests a decoupling of hotel performance from GDP growth. While major events like the FIFA World Cup and America’s 250th anniversary are expected to provide a 1 to 2 percent boost, the industry faces significant margin erosion due to rising costs in labor, taxes, and insurance. Furthermore, many assets suffer from broken capital stacks where high leverage and deferred property improvement plans have created financial strain, despite the underlying real estate remaining fundamentally sound.