Navigating Duality in Space: Establishing a Foundational Understanding of Dual-Use Space Activities

RAND has released the first-year findings of its "Duality in Space" project, a three-year initiative launched in 2024 to address the security risks of dual-use satellite systems. As space assets increasingly serve both civilian and military functions, the lack of international governance frameworks creates a high risk of misinterpreting benign activities as hostile threats. This research aims to develop realistic norms that can prevent unintended escalation and ensure the long-term stability of the global space technology sector.

The inherent duality of modern space systems, which provide essential civilian services like communications, navigation, and environmental monitoring while simultaneously supporting military intelligence, presents a significant challenge for global security. According to the RAND report, this overlap makes it difficult for governments, militaries, and commercial operators to accurately interpret satellite activities. Without clear distinctions, benign orbital behaviors could be misread as aggressive, potentially triggering preemptive defensive measures that escalate into international conflict.

To mitigate these risks, RAND launched the Duality in Space project in 2024 with sponsorship from Founders Pledge. The first year of the study synthesized data from a baseline report, three virtual workshops, and extensive stakeholder engagements to map the global landscape of dual-use systems. The research highlights that despite the high stakes for international security, there are currently no specific international norms or governance frameworks designed to manage the complexities of dual-use space technology.

The project team offers several key recommendations for the development of a future governance regime to inform policy and decision-making. They suggest that any framework must assume the dual-use nature of all space systems and prioritize the monitoring of observable behaviors and their effects rather than perceived intent. Furthermore, the report emphasizes the need for inclusive participation from a wide range of stakeholders, including established and emerging space-faring nations, private industry, and the academic community, to bridge the growing gap between rapid technological innovation and policy development.