New Mexico Governor’s Race May Hinge on Oil and Gas

The upcoming New Mexico gubernatorial election between Democrat Deb Haaland and Republican Gregg Hull is centering on the future of the state’s oil and gas industry, which provides up to 30 percent of the general fund revenue. While Haaland emphasizes a transition toward cleaner extractive industries and renewable energy, Hull vows to streamline permitting to unleash further production. This race is critical for the sector as the winner will appoint agency heads who dictate environmental regulations and bonding requirements for drilling operations.

The contest to replace term-limited Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham pits former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland against former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull. Haaland, who has a history of opposing fossil fuel production and supporting the Green New Deal, is now campaigning on a platform of "balance," focusing on good-paying jobs and ensuring extractive industries move toward cleaner operations. Hull, however, warns that Haaland’s past record makes the industry nervous and has promised to remove regulatory hurdles to boost production. The political stakes are high, as the governor’s office holds the power to appoint agency heads who can either roll back or tighten rules on methane emissions and wastewater disposal.

New Mexico has seen a dramatic increase in energy activity, with oil production roughly doubling during the Biden administration from 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day, reaching 2.3 million in March. Despite Haaland’s past temporary halt on federal oil leasing, the Interior Department under her leadership processed more drilling permits than the previous administration. This production surge is vital to the state’s economy, as tax and royalty payments from the industry account for 25 to 30 percent of New Mexico’s general fund. Haaland enters the general election with a significant financial advantage, having raised $12.8 million compared to Hull’s $595,000.

Industry reactions reflect the uncertainty of the transition, with New Mexico Oil and Gas Association President Missi Currier questioning Haaland’s record while noting the governor's role in determining New Mexico's status as a national energy leader. While the Cook Political Report lists the race as leaning Democratic, analysts like Brian Sanderoff suggest Haaland’s environmental record could be a vulnerability in a state so dependent on fossil fuel revenue. The winner will also have to navigate a state legislature that has been under Democratic control since 2017. If elected, Haaland plans to focus on plugging abandoned wells and promoting wind and solar, while Hull intends to leverage his business background to prioritize infrastructure and industrial growth.