Can Colombia's New Government Reverse the Nation's Oil and Gas Decline

President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella’s victory in a closely contested election signals a major policy shift for Colombia’s struggling energy sector. The new administration aims to reverse a decade of declining hydrocarbon production and rising dependence on costly liquefied natural gas imports by reactivating exploration and production contracts. This strategy is central to a broader economic plan targeting 7% annual GDP growth and addressing a ballooning fiscal deficit.

Colombia’s oil and gas industry has faced significant headwinds, with crude production falling to 724,910 barrels per day in April 2026, a sharp decline from over 915,000 barrels a decade earlier. Natural gas output has also plummeted to 694 million cubic feet per day, forcing the country to import nearly a third of its gas requirements. These shortages have driven up electricity prices by 25% to 36% in some regions and contributed to an annualized inflation rate of 5.84% as of May 2026, creating a cost-of-living crisis that impacts low-income households and undermines energy sovereignty.

To combat these trends, President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella, supported by Vice President and former Finance Minister José Manuel Restrepo Abondano, plans to end the drilling freeze instituted by outgoing President Gustavo Petro. The administration intends to reactivate exploration and production activities while positioning natural gas as a bridge fuel for the energy transition. A cornerstone of this plan is the revival of hydraulic fracturing through strictly regulated pilot projects, which must secure social licenses and meet rigorous environmental and seismic safety standards to operate on geologically stable land.

The stakes for the sector are high, as the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH) estimates that Colombia holds 3 billion recoverable barrels of shale oil and 34 trillion cubic feet of shale gas. Tapping into these unconventional reserves is seen as vital for replenishing proven reserves that declined further in 2025. Additionally, the new government plans a security crackdown, including military strikes against illegal structures, to protect energy infrastructure and improve the prospects of reviving the economically crucial oil industry. This approach aims to mitigate economic risks arising from insufficient domestic supply and restore energy sovereignty amid global supply constraints.