Capacity crunch: Freight demand is rebounding, but driver availability may constrain future growth

The trucking industry is entering a recovery phase characterized by declining capacity and rising freight rates, yet a potential driver shortage threatens to limit future expansion. Federal regulators have implemented stricter oversight on non-domiciled commercial driver's licenses (CDLs) and English language proficiency, which could remove tens of thousands of drivers from the labor pool. As carriers prepare for a projected increase in truck sales by late 2026, the sector must navigate these tightening labor constraints alongside a shifting landscape of independent carrier registrations.

After an extended downcycle, the trucking sector is showing signs of a turnaround with analysts predicting a surge in truck sales by the second half of 2026. Freight rates are trending upward as capacity tightens, but the industry faces a looming challenge in sourcing qualified company drivers to meet rebounding demand. Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR Transportation Intelligence, notes that while truckload employment is at its lowest level since 2014, the number of registered carriers has actually increased by 34% since the pandemic as drivers opted to become independent operators. This fragmentation, combined with a steady decline in broader capacity that began in late 2022, creates a complex environment for carriers weighing whether to expand their fleets or prioritize profit margins.

A significant factor in the tightening labor market is the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) recent crackdown on non-domiciled CDLs. Initiated by U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy in September 2025, the new rules require state agencies to use the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) system to verify applicant documentation. Despite a temporary legal stay in late 2025, the FMCSA finalized the rule in February 2026, targeting tens of thousands of licenses issued contrary to federal regulations across more than 30 states. While Duffy initially estimated a potential loss of 194,000 drivers, he later indicated that at least 28,000 have already been removed. Additionally, stricter enforcement of English language proficiency standards is further reducing the pool of eligible drivers.

The impact of these regulatory changes varies across the sector, with some carriers reporting a noticeable drop in applicant volume. David Wheeler, director of safety at Ohio-based MCK Trucking Inc., noted a decrease in orientation sizes over the last six months, though he views the removal of 'bad actors' and unqualified drivers as a long-term benefit for the industry. Conversely, Vise suggests that many of the affected CDLs were likely used for local short-haul work, such as construction or agriculture, rather than long-haul truckload operations, potentially mitigating the market-moving impact. As the industry moves toward 2026, the primary concern for motor carriers remains whether they can find enough qualified personnel to justify investments in new equipment without compromising their financial recovery.