10 ecommerce trends that are defining 2026 for online retailers

Artificial intelligence and agentic commerce have emerged as the primary drivers of the e-commerce landscape in the first half of 2026. Data indicates a significant shift in consumer behavior, with AI-driven traffic now converting at a much higher rate than traditional sources. As major retailers like Amazon and Walmart adopt divergent strategies for AI integration, the industry is seeing a fundamental transformation in how products are discovered and purchased.

The mid-year outlook for 2026 reveals a dramatic shift in the efficacy of artificial intelligence within the retail sector. According to Adobe data from March 2026, AI-driven traffic to retail websites converted 42% more frequently than non-AI traffic, a complete reversal from the prior year when AI conversion rates were nearly half those of traditional sources. This shift is prompting retailers to overhaul their technology stacks and content optimization strategies to better capture this high-intent traffic. Simultaneously, major financial institutions including Visa, Mastercard, and American Express are positioning themselves within the AI ecosystem by supporting Stripe’s agentic payment capabilities and Google’s Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP).

Market leaders Amazon and Walmart are pursuing distinct paths regarding agentic commerce, reflecting their unique operational strengths. Amazon, which currently accounts for 40% of all e-commerce sales among the Top 2000 companies, has largely restricted third-party AI agents in favor of its own proprietary first-party tools. In contrast, Walmart has embraced a multi-pronged collaborative approach, utilizing 'super agents' to manage operations and partnering with external entities like OpenAI while promoting its own internal agent, Sparky. This competition occurs against a backdrop of strong sector growth, particularly for Mass Merchants, who saw web sales increase by 14.4% year-over-year in 2025.

Beyond the top two retailers, chains such as Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Target are doubling down on omnichannel investments to link physical store capabilities with digital convenience. The online resale market is also seeing a resurgence driven by younger consumers, with platforms like ThredUp, Gone.com, and Phia leveraging AI tools to optimize resale outcomes. While the total volume of purchases originating from AI discovery remains small compared to traditional channels, tech giants Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google are aggressively monetizing their large language models through new commerce-related features. These developments suggest that while agentic commerce habits are still crystallizing, they are becoming a permanent fixture of the e-commerce discovery and backend automation process.