Shippers face tighter capacity as trucking rates hold near record highs

The latest ACT Research For-Hire Trucking Index indicates that freight rates remain near historical highs despite a slight month-over-month decline, signaling a market that has shifted decisively in favor of carriers. Shippers are encountering tighter capacity as Class 8 tractor sales stay below replacement levels and new federal regulations continue to constrain the driver pool. This environment suggests that the capacity shortage and elevated rate levels are likely to persist through the remainder of the year, complicating volume expansion plans for many shippers.

According to the June For-Hire Trucking Index from ACT Research, the Freight Rate Index reached a seasonally adjusted 70.2, a decline from May’s record 79.7 but still one of the strongest readings in the survey’s 17-year history. While the Capacity Index rose 1.5 points to a 43-month high of 55.0, this growth is primarily driven by larger, well-managed fleets rather than a broad industry recovery. ACT Research notes that Class 8 tractor sales continue to run below replacement levels, which keeps overall market capacity tight and maintains upward pressure on rates.

The labor market remains a significant bottleneck, with the Driver Availability Index sitting at 34.1 in June. Although this is a slight improvement from the five-year low of 30.4 recorded in April, the index remains deeply depressed due to a wave of Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) regulations. These include tighter Electronic Logging Device (ELD) enforcement, registration fraud crackdowns, and restrictions on nondomiciled CDLs that took effect in mid-March. These regulatory pressures, combined with driver school closures, are expected to sustain driver scarcity for the foreseeable future.

Fleet investment is currently hampered by thin profit margins and a lag between spot and contract rate increases. Only 47% of carriers reported plans to purchase equipment in the next three months, falling short of the 53% historical average for June. However, ACT Research anticipates that capacity expansion will accelerate in the third and fourth quarters as recent spot rate gains begin to reflect in contract rates. Carriers are also expected to address pent-up demand for equipment replacement as they prepare for the upcoming EPA’27 emissions standards.