Fixing a Broken Market: A Plan for Cheaper Freight, Cleaner Air, and American Truck Leadership

The United States freight sector remains heavily dependent on aging diesel fleets, which transport over 70% of the nation's goods by weight and contribute to significant price volatility for essential commodities. This reliance on diesel not only drives up costs at the pump and register but also results in an estimated $100 billion in annual health damages due to pollution-related illnesses. Transitioning to electric heavy-duty trucks offers a potential hedge against fuel price spikes, yet the domestic market faces systemic hurdles including high upfront costs and a lack of competitive pricing transparency.

The U.S. Class 8 truck market is characterized by extreme concentration, with four major manufacturer groups—Daimler, Paccar, Volvo, and Traton—controlling approximately 99.9% of all sales across seven brands. The Freightliner brand alone accounts for more than one-third of the domestic market. According to the Federation of American Scientists, these legacy manufacturers have leveraged their oligopoly to lobby against stricter pollution standards and slow-walk the development of electric models. This market structure has reportedly led to inflated pricing for electric vehicles; while battery costs fell between 2020 and 2025, the price of electric Class 8 tractors in the U.S. rose by 27%, or roughly $87,000, even as comparable European models saw a 32% price decrease.

Beyond high purchase prices, the freight industry faces significant financial barriers due to a lack of public pricing and unknown residual values for used electric trucks. Because lenders are often unable to accurately value electric trucks as collateral—sometimes setting that value at zero—affordable commercial loans remain out of reach for many fleet owners eager to electrify. These market dysfunctions have already impacted state-level policy, with Oregon delaying electric-truck rules citing market instability. Furthermore, recent political shifts have seen moves to eliminate federal greenhouse-gas standards and attempts to revoke California’s authority to set independent truck rules, creating a regulatory environment that critics argue chills investment in next-generation technology.

The continued reliance on diesel has direct economic consequences for the trucking sector, as carriers frequently pass through the costs of volatile fuel prices to consumers of essential goods like food and building materials. The Clean Air Task Force estimates that diesel pollution is responsible for 8,800 premature deaths and 3,700 heart attacks annually in the U.S., placing a heavy burden on communities near ports and highways. Without a comprehensive national plan to modernize freight and address the incumbent oligopoly, the U.S. risks falling behind international competitors who are more aggressively adopting electric platforms. Experts suggest that a new regulatory framework is necessary to drive competition, improve price transparency, and ensure the long-term viability of American truck leadership.