Ecommerce drives grocery sales growth

A new report from FMI—The Food Industry Association and NielsenIQ reveals that online sales accounted for more than 70% of total grocery sales growth in 2025. U.S. online grocery sales are projected to expand at an annual rate of 11.6% through 2028, eventually reaching $452 billion and capturing over a quarter of the total market. This shift underscores the critical importance of omnichannel strategies for retailers as digital channels become the primary engine for industry expansion.

Online sales contributed more than 70% of total grocery sales growth in 2025, according to a report by FMI—The Food Industry Association and research firm NielsenIQ. The study projects that U.S. online grocery sales will grow at an annual rate of 11.6% through 2028, eventually reaching a total of $452 billion. While ecommerce currently represents approximately 20% of grocery spending, its market share is expected to hit 25.5% by 2028. Jack O’Leary, director of ecommerce strategic insights for NIQ, emphasized that retailer success now hinges on connecting digital and physical experiences into a single journey, as digital channels are poised for extensive growth.

Omnichannel shopping is now the standard for most households, with 94% of consumers who bought groceries last year using both online and in-store formats. Steve Markenson, VP of research and insights at FMI, noted that while most households use both channels, shopping behavior varies significantly between them; ecommerce is often used for smaller baskets of one to three items. Stock-up trips involving 12 or more items account for only 16% of total ecommerce spending. Although online spending is currently led by shelf-stable nonfood items like health and beauty, food items saw the fastest growth in 2025 at 18.8%, led by categories such as beverages, meat, and coffee.

The report also identifies delivery speed as a major competitive differentiator, with average delivery times from warehouses or stores to customer doors dropping from four days in 2021 to just two days. This shift is particularly pronounced among high-income households earning $150,000 or more, who increased their online spending by 29% last year compared to just 10% for lower-income households. Emerging technologies and social platforms are further transforming the sector, as grocery sales on TikTok Shop grew by over 90% last year. Additionally, a third of shoppers reported using generative AI to research products, and while only 11% currently use AI to make purchases, that number is expected to rise for low-consideration items.